Intrade Betting Market Data

Data from Intrade, an online prediction market, in days leading up to the 2008 United States Presidential Election.

intrade08

Format

A data frame with 36891 rows and 10 variables:

.row

integer: row number

day

Date: date of the session

statename

character: full name of each state (including District of Columbia in 2008)

MarketD

character

PriceD

numeric: closing price (predicted vote share) of the Democratic nominee’s market

VolumeD

integer: total session trades of the Democratic Party nominee’s market

MarketR

character

PriceR

numeric: closing price (predicted vote share) of the Republican nominee’s market

VolumeR

integer: total session trades of the Republican Party nominee’s market

state

character: abbreviation of each state (including District of Columbia in 2008)

Details

See QSS Table 4.9.

References

• Imai, Kosuke. 2017. Quantitative Social Science: An Introduction. Princeton University Press. URL.

• David Rothschild (2009) “Forecasting elections: Comparing prediction markets, polls, and their biases.” Public Opinion Quarterly, vol. 73, no. 5, pp. 895–916. doi = 10.1093/poq/nfp082